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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd