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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still